Fundamental Surprises

Abstract

This article is an updated English version of the Hebrew book "Fundamental Surprise - The National Intelligence Crisis" (1983). The author distinguishes between two types of surprise - Situational Surprise - a surprising event caused by failures in the collection, analysis, judgment or distribution of information about known phenomena, and Fundamental Surprise - a surprising event which reveals a personal, group or national mindset as irrelevant and misleading in interpreting the occurrence. Using the Yom Kippur Surprise Attack (1973) as his primary case study, the author describes the Fundamental Surprise phenomena and derives valuable information and lessons regarding the realms of Intelligence and National Defense.

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